The Emmys :: Analyzing the Lead & Supporting Actress Nominees

Television Academy

Television Academy

Editor’s note: This is the third in a multi-part series looking at some of the major categories of this year’s Emmy Awards which will be broadcast on September 20 on the FOX Network.

The Emmy’s are upon us, which means it’s time to start predictin’ y’all! But I can’t just go with my gut, I need to prove it with numbers, and lots of ‘em! So let me explain the metrics I’m going to use.

For an explanation of the scoring system, please refer to Part 1 of the series, Analysing the Outstanding Drama & Comedy Nominees.

Television Academy

Television Academy

  • Taraji P. Henson, Empire. She was great, the show was alright. It’s nice to see her get some attention for once, especially after years of obscurity. But the show isn’t really looked at too favorably by voters.
  • Claire Danes, Homeland. A track record of wins and she is a killer actress. But this year…
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. Another excellent actress finally getting some lead actress attention. She’s been in the movies too, which is a bonus, but the show is not good.
  • Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black. Fans and critics have heaped praises on Maslany for years for playing multiple characters in the same show. Finally she gets some Emmy love, but can she possibly win in such a crowded category?
  • Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men. What an amazing performance, and she’s never won anything.
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards. She is a great actress, but I don’t feel the season gave her much to do.

Actress-Drama-chart

Another close category, but I shall predict Robin Wright takes it this year.

Who should win? Elizabeth Moss. C’mon!
Who shouldn’t win? Claire Danes. She’s had her wins already.
Who might squeak by? Viola Davis. She’s a beloved actress, you never know…
Who shouldn’t even have been nominated? I don’t really have one; that said, Robin Wright had the weakest year.
Who Wuz Robbed? Keri Russell from The Americans (sense a pattern?).

Television Academy

Television Academy

  • Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback. She was great in this exceedingly dark and awkward show. And she was on Friends, which is always a plus.
  • Lily Tomlin, Grace And Frankie. She’s been around forever, but this wasn’t the best vehicle for her.
  • Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer. Very funny on her show, but not the most polished actress on the list.
  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie. Talented actress beloved by the voters, but she isn’t funny.
  • Amy Poehler, Parks And Recreation. Her last season of Parks, so she might get sympathy for that. Super talented.
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. Beloved by everyone and has a track record of critical and awards success.

Actress-Comedy-chart

If that looks like a blowout, that’s because I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus is going to take it.

Who should win? JLD. She was pretty great.
Who shouldn’t win? Edie Falco. No!
Who might squeak by? Amy Poehler. She might finally get the “her last chance” award. Or might not, Steve Carell never did.
Who shouldn’t even have been nominated? Lily Tomlin. She’s great, but this was not a good show.
Who Wuz Robbed? This is easier: Constance Wu from Fresh of the Boat. A great, funny performance totally ignored.

Television Academy

Television Academy

  • Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey. Nope!
  • Lena Headey, Game Of Thrones. Her performance is being called “brave” and “amazing”. That’s damn true.
  • Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones. She had a weaker year than others on Game of Thrones, but not bad.
  • Christine Baranski, The Good Wife. She’s beloved.
  • Christina Hendricks, Mad Men. Her last year at Mad Men. She might be due.
  • Uzo Aduba, Orange Is The New Black. Suzanne “Crazy-Eyes” is the standout character of the show, no question about it.

Sup-Actress-Drama-chart

It’s close here, but I think Lena Headey will win.

Who should win? I’m okay with Lena Headey.
Who shouldn’t win? Christine Baranski. She’s had her chance.
Who might squeak by? Christina Hendricks. Her last season, folks! Last season!
Who shouldn’t even have been nominated? I can’t stress how little I care for Downton Abbey.
Who Wuz Robbed? Again, a lot of people.

Television Academy

Television Academy

  • Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory. She’s good, but not that good.
  • Niecy Nash, Getting On. A talented comedienne, but nobody knows who she is.
  • Julie Bowen, Modern Family. She’s won before, but I am losing patience with her character.
  • Allison Janney, Mom. A great actress but an average show.
  • Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live. One of the best current SNL cast members, no question.
  • Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent. She’s good and weird. She won’t win.
  • Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Funny and people like her, but she’s a bit one note.
  • Anna Chlumsky, Veep. A master of dry wit and subtlety.

Sup-Actress-Comedy-chart

Naturally, this is ridiculously close. I am flipping a coin here and calling it for Allison Janney.

Who should win? Man, I really don’t know. Too many to decide.
Who shouldn’t win? Mayim Bialik wasn’t that great, just fine.
Who might squeak by? Jane Krakowski, of course.
Who shouldn’t even have been nominated? Julie Bowen. Modern Family is no longer that good.
Who Wuz Robbed? Why, only everyone else!

Next: Best Reality and Variety Series
Previous: Lead & Supporting Actor Nominees

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